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Updated on April 20, 2023
The following information is built on market data from public sources and C.H. Robinson’s information advantage—based on our experience, data, and scale. Use these insights to stay informed, assist with decision making to potentially mitigate risk, and hopefully help avoid disruptions to your supply chain.
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While many industries are still facing overflowing inventory due to low consumer demand, the automotive industry is on the rebound. In fact, S&P Global Mobility expects new vehicle sales globally to reach nearly 83.6 million units in 2023, a 5.6% increase from the previous year. While this trend is currently trending upward coming out of the pandemic, macroeconomic challenges could impact this growth, and evolving market conditions could introduce new challenges.
Even with this projected growth, the auto industry is under pressure to reduce operating costs and emissions. Since C.H. Robinson works alongside 85 of the top 100 auto companies, our experts have firsthand knowledge of the ways auto supply chains have evolved over the last five years and why their transportation and customs processes can’t be effective with their pre-pandemic operations.
Today, auto companies place more focus on opportunities for nearshoring and reshoring, strategies for costs and emissions savings, and the operational shifts needed to adapt to market changes. While these trends are gaining significant traction in the automotive space, they aren’t unique to this industry. In fact, companies across all industries can learn from the shifts in automotive.
Nearshoring, reshoring, and friend-shoring—these terms have come up more frequently in supply chain conversations since the U.S.-China tariffs were established in 2018. Since there is a lot that goes into moving or establishing a new plant, including labor, manufacturing space, raw materials, etc., there was not substantial movement on this strategy before or during the pandemic.
Now, more companies are taking the leap to diversify their supply chain through reshoring, particularly in the automotive space. To name a few, Volkswagen announced they’re establishing an EV plant in Canada and Tesla and BMW are establishing or growing plants in Mexico.
In fact, the National Association of Auto Transport in Mexico expects to grow 20% in the next four years due to nearshoring efforts. In Mexico alone, 13 of the states experienced a 12% growth in foreign direct investments (FDIs) last year.
Coincidentally, the highest areas of investment were in states where automotive manufacturing is historically strong, including Nuevo León, which produces more than 20% of all auto parts in Mexico. As a leading North America customs house broker with offices strategically positioned across the U.S.-Mexico border and our experience moving the most truckload freight of any company in the world, C.H. Robinson experts see the growth directly impact our customers navigating nearshoring challenges.
While Mexico is a strong area for automotive, there are also shifts outside of North America. In fact, C.H. Robinson recently helped an automotive customer shift from Asia to splitting between Mexico and eastern Europe. On top of that, activity is building in Southeast Asia. The Australian port authorities reported Southeast Asia exports to Oceania increased more than 10% in 2022.
While its clear automotive companies are implementing reshoring strategies into their supply chain, the idea of implementing this strategy may feel overwhelming for companies that don’t know where to start.
If you’re interested in exploring this further, start with a sourcing analysis report. The report helps you see where current sourcing shifts are taking place, if an alternative sourcing location carries any trade agreement or other preferred legislation to reduce landed costs, and more. Log in to Navisphere to get started on your sourcing analysis report.
The pandemic brought a new appreciation for risk management, agility, and flexibility in automotive supply chains and that trend continues. As the market has softened, many conversations with automotive companies are focused on how they can introduce more efficiencies into their supply chain to increase cost savings. While this can look different depending on the lanes and regions being used, many companies are eager to uncover savings opportunities.
Recently, C.H. Robinson experts helped Mazda in Australia cut 23% from their air freight costs by identifying they were paying duty on goods that qualified as duty-free and managing container prioritization to minimize demurrage and storage costs. Other automotive companies are taking advantage of consolidation offerings for truckload and ocean, with more openness to a mix of contractual and spot pricing that helps with agility during market shifts.
Driving out waste makes it easier to decrease costs and emissions. And as the auto industry focuses more on renewable energy, both in its supply chains and its products, opportunities like this continue to grow in an importance. This has meant increased demand for tech tools like Emissions IQ, our self-serve tool that instantly shows global carbon emissions across all forms of a company’s transportation.
Change is not easy, especially if your supply chain is on track using the same strategies you’ve been using for the past decade. But today’s supply chains are more complex, and companies are under greater cost-pressures. The automotive industry is just one example of what out-of-the-box thinking can get you—increased savings, efficiencies, and a more resilient supply chain.
If you’re interested in diving deeper into the strategies that would work best for your company, we’re here to help.
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Tune in for new ways to leverage today’s softer market, and strategies to prepare for the next shift.
There has been a gradual increase in demand from mid-March compared to the first few months of the year, driven by quarter-end push and increasing ecommerce demand. Expect the increasing demand to continue in April and remain stable in May prior to the upcoming quarter-end uptick.
Capacity is sufficiently available across most trade lanes as more passenger flights continue to resume operations. Rates have trended upwards and will continue to remain stable and competitive in the second quarter of 2023.
United States export capacity is generally open and rates continue their downward trend. Expect additional capacity entering the market in the coming months to support increased travel demand.
India market remains steady with capacity available for U.S. imports. Spot rates on U.S. imports continue to trend down as capacity grows and demand remains light. U.S. exports to India markets are relatively well balanced between capacity and demand, leading to more predictable transit times.
Export conditions remain mixed in Latin America. Northbound “seed season” from Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay started early March and will continue to about mid-May, mainly supported by dedicated charter programs.
C.H. Robinson Mexico started operational coverage for the newest local airport AIFA, capacity and rates remain stable. Southbound capacity (i.e., Miami) is available to most markets.
Ocean freight demand on most trade lanes is generally flat. However, rates have reached unsustainable levels for the steamship lines, which are pushing more aggressively for increases.
Source: Linerlytica
Steamship lines continue to void sailings to balance the supply. They are also slow steaming—or taking longer routes—via the Cape of Good Hope on the backhaul legs of major East-West services. This will impact transit-sensitive commodities.
While congestion is mostly gone, the need for some flexibility remains as blank sailings and service adjustments continue to impact lead times.
Source: © Sea—Intelligence
The market started to turn positive for the first time since September 2022, as carriers announced rate increases around mid-April on some key routes.
Trans-Pacific spot rates continue to fall. However, there is rising conviction around upcoming general rate increases (GRI) with carriers announcing rate increases. The improvement in capacity utilization has boosted carriers’ confidence. Shipments pushed forward ahead of the mid-April GRI are expected to drive utilization levels further upwards.
Asia-Europe spot rates remain steady with minor rebounds expected over the coming weeks. Capacity utilization is reaching a three-year high on the Asia-North Europe route, while Mediterranean utilization has also recovered and is on par with the last two years.
While the energy crisis did not impact the winter demand as drastically as forecasted, overcapacity continues to impact this region. Steamship lines have implemented service changes to optimize their coverage, differentiate services, and fill up ships with the right ports of call.
Social movements in France are impacting French ocean terminals. This is causing delays for cargo flow as well as some re-routing to nearby ports (e.g., Antwerp). These alternative ports are managing the influx thanks to the large amount of capacity in the market.
Imports remain soft year over year (Y/Y) due to inflation and normalizing demand from the largest importers, including retail, furniture, electronics, and home improvement, which represent over 50% of U.S. imports.
Many shippers are still showing high inventory levels and waiting to order more, while seasonal shippers have not yet started to increase their volumes.
March 2023 U.S. container import volumes increased 6.9% from February 2023, up 4.2% from pre-pandemic March 2019. While this looks positive, consider the fact that March has three extra days compared to February, and the 2019 Chinese New Year was two weeks later than in 2023.
While Los Angeles and Long Beach terminals spot slowdown actions are not significantly impacting cargo flow, shippers keep looking to the U.S. East Coast (USEC) and Gulf port as an alternative, solidifying the shifts occurred during the pandemic.
The trans-Tasman market continues to be fluid with space and services opening gradually. The shuttle service out of Sydney and Brisbane has added tonnage to the lane, while the Focus Container Line to the trans-Tasman service introduction has increased options.
The market continues to soften, and rates will continue to slowly decline as carriers compete for market share. Space continues to be tight on the USEC but easing on the U.S. West Coast (USWC).
Port calls to New Zealand for exports from the USWC continue on a two-week basis, and transshipment service options are increasing.
The Europe export market remains stable, with space and equipment readily available for dry cargo. Rates are still gradually being reduced by all carriers as supply still outweighs demand.
Northeast Asia to Oceania continues to be in flux. Carriers are attempting to increase rates, but demand is not at a level to sustain increases.
Southeast Asia is in steady decline as demand weakens. Carriers are now looking at amending services, such as rationalizing port calls, to limit space and increase demand.
There are currently no reports of congestion in Singapore or Malaysia. Feedback from the lines report operations are normal and without major delays.
Demand is fairly steady in India and Bangladesh, but space remains available. Pakistan remains down severely.
Steamship lines are implementing service changes in this area of the world. Steamship lines are trying to optimize ship utilization and offer creative routes to attract cargo.
Some vessel operators on the India subcontinent to North America are attempting small rate increases, yet the lower demand doesn't allow them to affect the market significantly.
Inland service highlights
Port Everglades Terminal
Georgia
Charleston
NY/NJ
Chicago
Memphis/Nashville
Indianapolis
Minneapolis
Kansas City
Cleveland
Columbus
Port of Los Angeles/ Long Beach
Northern California
Houston
The domestic transportation market is gradually recovering, but demand is decreasing compared to last year. Fuel rates have slightly decreased since March, and the domestic freight market is still experiencing a fierce price war due to unbalanced demand.
Customs clearance times between Shenzhen and China are speeding up for both imports and exports. Transit time in the Pingxiang port from China to Southeast Asia remains two to three days and import congestion is relieving since Pingxiang port implemented a diversion of inbound and outbound vehicles in March.
Australia port logistics and landside container transport services are currently operating at levels within capacity, and there are no reports of service issues at any of the major ports nationally.
Two major container terminal operators have completed their annual review of terminal ancillary charges. The terminals have continued investments in equipment upgrades to ensure service levels meet expectations.
The refrigerated logistics sector has seen one of Australia’s largest cold chain refrigeration companies, Scott’s Refrigerated Logistics, placed into receivership (a form of debt restructuring), having the potential to place additional pressure within the cold chain logistics market.
CBP published the 2023 Periodic Monthly Statement (PMS) dates for 2023. PMS is a free program offered by CBP that allows importers to pay their duties, taxes, and fees directly to the government.
Beginning March 10, 2023, the United States will impose a 200% tariff on aluminum and derivatives produced in Russia. In addition, a 200% tariff goes into effect on April 20, 2023 on aluminum imports with any amount of primary aluminum smelted or cast in Russia.
The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) recently extended hundreds of Section 301 China Tariff exclusions. Identify duty exclusion eligibility and uncover duty refund opportunities using our U.S. Tariff Search Tool.
On March 18, 2023, CBP will begin implementing the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) Region Alert enhancement into the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE).
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) published its final guidance on foreign supplier verification programs (FSVPs) for importers of food and animals, originally released on January 10, 2023.
Stay up to date on the latest news, insights, perspectives, and resources from our customs and trade policy experts. Proactively prepare for any emerging customs and trade developments by staying informed—subscribe to Trade & Tariff Insights today.
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Stable: Green – Relatively open capacity and low spot market rates
Strained: Yellow – Capacity is tight and mid-level spot market rates
Critical: Red – Backlog of capacity and high spot market rates
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